What’s Up with Real Estate?
National news and local views for the week ending Friday, September 1, 2023
The crash that wasn’t
The Case-Shiller national home price index rose 0.7% MoM in June (the 5th-straight increase) and is now just a whisker below the June 2022 peak. The very modest 2.7% decline in home prices experienced in the 2nd half of 2022 has already been erased. And home prices in 10 of the 20 big cities tracked separately by Case-Shiller are already at record levels!
Good news for mortgage rates
Early signs of the job market loosening (ADP payrolls), plus the downward revision of 2Q 2023 GDP (from 2.4% –> 2.0%) and dovish (‘we’ve done enough’) comments from current and past Federal Reserve presidents were just what we needed after average 30-year mortgage rates hit a new peak of 7.49% last week. Now we’re back near 7% and the market is pricing in a 90% chance of no rate hike on Sept 20.
A thin market
Good news: the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Sales Index (which tracks new contract signings for existing homes) rose 0.9% month-over-month to 77.6. That’s actually impressive when you consider how high mortgage rates and low home inventory were in August. Not-so-good news: an index level of 77.6 implies transaction activity similar to 2008 (post-GFC).
Local Market Trends
As of Friday, September 1, 2023
Want to know what’s happening in your area? I serve Northern Utah and I can provide you with that data…
| Area | Median Price | Active Listings | New Listings – 5 days | Median Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearfield, UT |
$474,990
0%
|
73
-0.4%
|
3 |
53
0.4%
|
| Farmington, UT |
$699,500
0.1%
|
54
0.1%
|
6 |
41
-0.2%
|
| Kaysville, UT |
$679,450
-0.1%
|
60
0.1%
|
3 |
38
-0.2%
|
| Layton, UT |
$614,950
0%
|
112
0%
|
12 |
39
0.1%
|
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) from Aug. to Sep. 2023..png)
